Possible scenario
Corridor stays open
45% Chance
Ukraine, Turkey, insurers, and commercial operators keep the Black Sea corridor functioning with delays rather than a full shutdown. Russia continues signaling it can raise costs for Ukrainian exports, but avoids a sustained campaign against every merchant vessel.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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