This extreme shift would likely cause wages for knowledge workers to drop by more than 10%, while labor's share of US GDP falls from about 60% to 45.2%. The resulting wealth shift would favor owners of capital and AI infrastructure. Clark described these forecasts as highly speculative and "outlandish," using the data to urge global governments to accelerate the creation of AI safeguards and regulation.
Tuesday, October 20, 2026
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Anthropic Projects $44.4T US GDP in Extreme AI Scenario by 2030
AI3 days ago
Jack Clark, co-founder of Anthropic, detailed a series of economic projections for the US at the IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Bangkok on Oct. 17. The company's "Scenarios for our Economic Future" report maps out three possible paths by 2030 based on AI adoption, ranging from a "mild" projection of $34.1 trillion to an "extreme" case of $44.4 trillion, both calculated using 2025 prices. The highest estimate assumes AI achieves recursive self-improvement and outperforms humans on nearly all knowledge tasks.
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