Possible scenario
Diplomatic Downgrade
25% Chance
Tehran takes a visible but reversible step to show retaliation, such as recalling its ambassador for consultations or restricting UK diplomatic activity in Iran. London responds through the FCDO but avoids a full break in relations.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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