Possible scenario
Diplomatic Protest Contained
45% Chance
Iran follows its threat with public condemnation, ambassadorial summons, and statements denying IRGC involvement, but stops short of cutting ties. The UK maintains its sanctions and security posture while leaving room for consular and diplomatic channels through the FCDO and Iran's Foreign Ministry.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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