Possible scenario
Technical Cooperation Emerges
23% Chance
Despite denying an agreed Putin-Trump call, Moscow may still accept limited technical cooperation through health channels. This would let both sides manage the suspected plague case without turning it into a high-profile political negotiation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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