Possible scenario
Regional Cases Increase
17% Chance
A less likely but important outcome is that surveillance finds additional suspected or confirmed cases connected to the same exposure chain. This would keep the event below pandemic scale but could create short-lived risk-off trading, especially in travel and health-care names.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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