• 

  40%

  0.0%

  Impeachment Removes Peña

  Congress presses ahead after rejecting Santiago Peña’s resignation, arguing that a resignation would let him avoid a formal finding over the Ueno Bank collapse. The most likely path is an accelerated impeachment trial that removes Peña and transfers power to Vice President Pedro Alliana under constitutional succession.

  Finance +0.1%

• 

  25%

  0.0%

  Negotiated Constitutional Exit

  Lawmakers use the rejection of Peña’s resignation as leverage to secure testimony, documents, and political concessions tied to Ueno Bank. Peña exits through a negotiated constitutional settlement rather than a full conviction.

• 

  20%

  0.0%

  Peña Survives Impeachment

  Peña’s allies stabilize enough votes to block conviction, arguing that the Ueno Bank seizure was a regulatory failure rather than presidential misconduct. He remains weakened and is forced into personnel changes at the finance ministry, bank regulator, or Central Bank leadership.

• 

  15%

  −0.2%

  Banking Crisis Deepens

  The political fight worsens depositor anxiety, and the Ueno Bank collapse begins to affect confidence in smaller Paraguayan lenders. Authorities respond with liquidity support, deposit guarantees, and a faster search for a buyer or bridge-bank structure.

  Finance −0.3%

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if it happens. For information only. Not investment advice.