Possible scenario
Supply Disruption Escalates
20% Chance
A successful strike damages critical processing or power systems at Abqaiq, Khurais or connected export infrastructure. This becomes a material oil-supply shock because the affected hub handles a volume comparable to several large OPEC producers combined.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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