Possible scenario
Attacks Continue Contained
30% Chance
The Houthis keep testing Saudi and French defenses with drones and low-cost missiles. The attacks create periodic shutdowns and visible risk but do not remove large volumes from the export market.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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