Possible scenario
DOJ Expands Case
35% Chance
Federal prosecutors use Alvaro Pulido Vargas's arrest to deepen the money-laundering case around Nicolas Maduro, Alex Saab, PDVSA-linked contractors and CLAP food-program intermediaries. This is plausible because Pulido has long been described by U.S. authorities as a close business partner of Saab and a key node in alleged Venezuelan corruption networks.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Tickers
- CVX-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.