Possible scenario
Contained Prosecution
30% Chance
The arrest becomes a discrete criminal proceeding focused on laundering and forfeiture, without changing U.S. policy toward Maduro or Venezuela's oil sector. This is likely if prosecutors already possess extensive records and do not need Pulido to broaden the case immediately.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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