Possible scenario
Full Route Reopening
45% Chance
Hormuz traffic continues normalizing while Saudi and Gulf alternative routes remain available, allowing Kuwait to move crude without severe tanker or insurance constraints. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation restores production toward 3 million barrels per day as buyers regain confidence in Gulf loadings.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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