Possible scenario
Export Bottlenecks Persist
15% Chance
Hormuz remains technically open, but tanker queues, war-risk premiums, and uneven terminal access prevent Kuwait from using its full production capacity. Oil markets price a partial supply constraint rather than a complete Gulf reopening.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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