Possible scenario
Narrow Democratic House
31% Chance
Democrats’ national polling lead proves real but is partly diluted by district lines, turnout variation, and Republican strength in rural seats. The party flips the House, but by a small enough margin that governing and budget negotiations remain fragile.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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