Possible scenario
Democratic Wave Builds
44% Chance
The Economist/YouGov result fits a broader pattern of weak Trump approval, high inflation blame, and Democratic recovery on the generic ballot. The most likely path is that Democrats keep a durable national advantage into Election Day and convert it into a House majority, with the Senate outcome dependent on state-level races.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.6%
- Technology +0.3%
- Finance -0.3%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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