Possible scenario
Restrictive Policy Response
25% Chance
The UK government responds with firmer controls on sensitive research access, building on earlier warnings from MI5, MI6, and the National Centre for Information Defence. The policy focus is likely to fall on dual-use fields, export-controlled research, and university partnerships linked to Chinese state entities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Business Services +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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