Possible scenario
Diplomatic Escalation
20% Chance
Beijing rejects the MI5 alert as politically motivated and the issue becomes a bilateral irritant. The most likely escalation is diplomatic and administrative rather than a major trade rupture, but UK-China research and education flows face higher friction.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.4%
- Technology -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.