Maritime Or Air Incident

The large number of ships and aircraft operating in confined corridors raises the chance of a collision, unsafe intercept, or weapons-lock incident. Even without a deliberate attack, markets would treat this as a material escalation because it could force leaders in Beijing, Tokyo, Washington, or Taipei to respond publicly.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.