Possible scenario
NATO Territory Incident
18% Chance
A Russian drone, missile fragment, or air-defense debris is confirmed inside Poland, turning a precautionary closure into a NATO security incident. The most likely version is contained and casualty-free, but the event would still produce a sharper risk-off reaction.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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