Possible scenario
Contained Airspace Disruption
45% Chance
Poland treats the renewed Lublin and Rzeszow closures as a precaution after Russian strikes near Ukraine's western logistics routes. NATO air policing and Polish air-defense readiness increase, but there is no confirmed Russian penetration of Polish airspace.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.