Possible scenario
Russia Contains Damage
25% Chance
Russia reallocates air defense, electronic-warfare units, repair crews, and fuel logistics capacity to reduce the economic impact of refinery strikes. This does not end the Ukrainian campaign, but it lowers the probability of another immediate step-change in outages.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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