Possible scenario
Escalation Cycle Widens
20% Chance
Putin’s public GDP estimate makes refinery strikes a politically salient vulnerability, increasing the chance of retaliation against Ukrainian energy and logistics infrastructure. The escalation remains below direct NATO-Russia conflict but carries a larger short-term risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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