Possible scenario
Marshall Stabilizes Seat
36% Chance
The Senate Leadership Fund's $14 million intervention arrests Hamilton's momentum and reassures Republican donors that Kansas remains salvageable. Marshall benefits from rapid ad saturation, partisan consolidation, and warnings that a Hamilton win could decide Senate control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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