Possible scenario
Hamilton Withstands Barrage
34% Chance
Hamilton's lead proves durable because former Republican governors and moderate GOP defectors give the campaign bipartisan cover. The ad buy keeps Marshall competitive, but it also confirms to Democratic strategists that Kansas is genuinely in play.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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