Possible scenario
Retaliation Escalates
23% Chance
Washington treats the latest Chinese controls as part of a broader dual-use technology confrontation. The U.S. Commerce Department and allied governments respond with new listings, procurement restrictions, or expanded checks on drone components and machine tools.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -2.1%
- Technology -1.4%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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