Possible scenario
Licensing Regime Holds
42% Chance
China applies the new drone and machinery export controls mainly as a licensing regime rather than a de facto embargo. Civilian buyers in Europe, Southeast Asia, and parts of the Middle East continue receiving approvals, while U.S.-linked defense users face closer scrutiny.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- AVAV+0.6%
- TDY+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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