Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
Moscow responds visibly to the refinery campaign by expanding strikes on Ukrainian power, gas, and rail infrastructure. The market impact comes less from Russian refining alone and more from a perceived step-up in war escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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