Possible scenario
Refining Losses Deepen
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the Omsk and Salavat strikes cause meaningful but not total outages, adding to earlier damage across Russia's refining system. Moscow prioritizes domestic fuel supply, extends export restrictions, and absorbs higher logistical costs while crude exports continue.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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