Possible scenario
Restrictions Become Baseline
45% Chance
The administration maintains the visa revocations, parole rollbacks, and tighter work-permit rules as the new operating baseline. Legal immigration remains more constrained than illegal border crossings, with employers adapting through slower hiring, automation, and more offshore work.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -0.7%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Healthcare -0.5%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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