Possible scenario
Carveouts For Employers
20% Chance
Business groups, hospitals, universities, and farm-state Republicans push the White House to create exemptions for industries with acute labor shortages. The administration preserves its restrictive stance publicly while allowing limited legal pathways for selected workers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
- Healthcare +0.3%
- Technology +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.