Possible scenario
Controlled Energy Retaliation
45% Chance
Ukraine continues long-range drone attacks on Russian refineries, depots, and power assets while Russia answers with missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian energy nodes. The conflict remains intense but contained within the existing war theater, with no immediate NATO involvement or sustained disruption to global oil flows.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.