Possible scenario
Energy War Escalates
25% Chance
The Trump-backed understanding to spare energy infrastructure effectively collapses, and both sides target fuel, electricity, and export facilities more openly. Markets treat this as a material escalation because Russian oil infrastructure and Ukrainian winter power supply are both exposed.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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