Possible scenario
Election Proceeds Securely
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the IDF leave freeze and Shin Bet coordination deter or disrupt Iranian plans before election day. Voting proceeds under unusually heavy security, with some visible military deployments near strategic sites but no nationwide interruption.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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