Possible scenario
Direct Iranian Strike
18% Chance
A direct Iranian missile-drone strike remains less likely than proxy activity but is plausible given the March and June 2026 exchanges. Israel would prioritize air defense, retaliatory planning, and continuity of government, producing a material but not necessarily systemic global risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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