Possible scenario
Commission And Prosecutions
38% Chance
The most likely path is a formal Israeli inquiry that reopens parts of the IDF's October 7 investigation and separates battlefield chaos from individual criminal liability. Senior commanders face testimony, reprimands, or referrals, but the issue is handled through Israeli institutions rather than immediately changing the war posture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.3%
Tickers
- ESLT-0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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