Possible scenario
IDF Contains Fallout
20% Chance
The IDF and government dispute the framing of the report, arguing that the Hannibal Directive was not formally invoked as a policy to kill civilians. The controversy remains politically painful but does not materially alter military operations or international support in the near term.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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