Possible scenario
Fire Quickly Contained
45% Chance
Russian emergency crews bring the Aframax Rio blaze under control without a major cargo or bunker-fuel release. Beach closures remain a precautionary public-health measure rather than evidence of a large spill, making this the most likely near-term outcome.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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