Possible scenario
Deal Survives Challenge
35% Chance
The Trump administration concludes that OFAC and existing sanctions statutes provide enough authority to proceed despite Senate Democrats' objections. The oil deal is adjusted at the margins but not fundamentally halted.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Tickers
- CVX+1.6%
- SLB+0.6%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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