Possible scenario
Rapid Stabilization
20% Chance
Rainfall eases, pumping improves, and authorities report that the worst phase has passed. The death toll may still edge higher, but markets would focus on reopening roads, restoring utilities, and the start of government relief payments.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.