Possible scenario
Crisis Peaks Locally
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the death toll rises further as rescue teams reach submerged homes, but the flooding begins to stabilize in Bangkok and nearby provinces. Authorities focus on evacuations, drainage, and emergency shelters rather than a broader economic shutdown.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
- Utilities -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.