Possible scenario
Procedural Setbacks
25% Chance
The large number of defendants, multiple languages, Haitian evidence chains, and extradition constraints create meaningful litigation risk. Defense lawyers challenge statements, custody records, and whether U.S. prosecutors can fairly try conduct that occurred primarily in Port-au-Prince.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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