Possible scenario
Plea-Driven Convictions
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the Southern District of Florida uses the extraditions to consolidate the case and pressure defendants into cooperation agreements. Prior guilty pleas by figures such as Rodolphe Jaar create leverage for prosecutors to build a structured narrative around financing, logistics, and command responsibility.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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