Possible scenario
Sticky Shelter Inflation
20% Chance
Housing costs remain a stubborn part of inflation, complicating the Bank of Canada’s easing plans. The central bank does not target home prices, but persistent shelter inflation limits how quickly it can cut rates without risking broader price pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Technology -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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