Possible scenario
Slow Affordability Repair
40% Chance
The most likely path is a slow improvement in affordability as Bank of Canada rate cuts reduce debt-service costs, but prices remain elevated because supply shortages persist. Population growth moderates after federal immigration changes, yet the existing housing deficit keeps rents and ownership costs high.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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