Possible scenario
Coordinated U.S. Buildout
45% Chance
Taiwan’s industrial park program becomes a structured channel for Nvidia-linked suppliers to co-locate near TSMC’s Arizona fabs and U.S. AI server customers. This is the base case because it aligns with Taiwan’s pledged U.S. spending, TSMC’s Arizona buildout, and Washington’s push to localize advanced chip and AI hardware supply chains.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.5%
- Industrials +0.8%
Tickers
- NVDA+2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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