Possible scenario
Policy Friction
18% Chance
The program becomes entangled in U.S. industrial-policy politics, including Buy America rules, labor conditions, and subsidy eligibility. The most likely market effect is sector-specific uncertainty rather than a broad macro shock.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-0.6%
- INTC+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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