Possible scenario
Targeted Control Orders
35% Chance
The Pentagon and Commerce Department move toward targeted export-control tools against labs viewed as refusing national-security conditions. Controls are framed as license requirements for overseas access to frontier models, not a blanket ban on the AI sector.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.9%
- Industrials +0.7%
- Business Services -0.6%
Tickers
- PLTR+2.5%
- AMZN-0.7%
- MSFT-0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.