Possible scenario
Denial Holds
38% Chance
Netanyahu's office continues disputing the Washington Post photographer's account, while Israeli police and the IDF issue only narrow statements. The government frames the case as contested local violence rather than a press-freedom or settler-enforcement failure.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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