Hochul Narrowly Wins

Kathy Hochul remains the slight favorite because New York's Democratic registration advantage and New York City turnout still give her a structural edge. The closer polling suggests Bruce Blakeman keeps the race competitive, but Hochul survives with a smaller margin than most incumbents would prefer.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.