Supply Disruption Returns

15%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.6%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Russian export policy, port logistics, or insurance constraints prevent the tanker from becoming the start of a steady flow. U.S. diesel inventories remain critically low, keeping fuel-price risk elevated for freight, agriculture, and retailers.

What it moves

Energy+1.3%
Industrials−0.9%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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